Introduction
As aspiring product managers aiming to build a career within top tech companies such as FAANG, navigating product interview questions is a critical skill. An effective approach involves blending structured thinking with creativity to provide insightful answers. Today, we’ll tackle a common type of question related to data estimation and user behavior: How would you estimate the number of Lyft rides given on Halloween? Utilizing frameworks and strategies from ‘Decode and Conquer: Answers to Product Management Interviews’, this blog post will guide you through an optimized response strategy.
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
Choosing the Right Framework
For estimating numerical values, a modified version of the Fermi Estimation method works best. This involves breaking down the problem into smaller parts and making educated guesses to reach an approximation.
Applying the Framework Step-by-Step
- Define the Scope: Clarify whether the estimation is for a specific city, the entire United States, or a global scale. For our example, let’s assume we are estimating for the United States.
- Identify Key Variables: Factors that could influence the number of rides on Halloween might include the population size, the percentage of the population that uses Lyft, and the likelihood of using Lyft on Halloween compared to a typical day.
- Break Down the Variables:
- Population: Use the latest US population data.
- Lyft User Base: Estimate the percentage of the population that has used Lyft at least once, considering demographics and urban versus rural areas.
- Halloween Factor: Consider that Halloween may increase ride requests due to parties, events, and reduced willingness to drive.
- Make Educated Guesses: For instance, if the US population is approximately 330 million, and you assume 15% have used Lyft, that’s nearly 50 million potential users. On Halloween, hypothesize that usage could double among users.
- Calculate: Combine your assumptions to estimate the total number of rides. Monitor your interviewer for cues if your assumptions are reasonable.
Example Calculation
Following the steps above, let’s say on a typical day, 1% of Lyft users take a ride. With the Halloween factor doubling usage, that would be: 50 million x 0.02 = 1 million rides on Halloween.
Facts Checks and Assumptions
It’s crucial to sanity-check your assumptions. Does 1 million rides on a special event day sound plausible given the size of the Lyft user base and overall US population? Use data points, like Lyft’s publicly-reported daily average rides, to ground your estimation.
Communicating Effectively
Clearly state your assumptions and thought process, ensuring that the interviewer can follow your logic. Ask for validation or refinement of your assumptions and show openness to feedback or additional data.
Conclusion
Today we’ve dissected a question about estimating Lyft rides on a specific day, walking through the modified Fermi Estimation method. Remember, the key to a compelling answer is not about reaching an exact number but demonstrating your ability to think critically about the problem, make reasonable assumptions, and communicate your thought process clearly. Practice with different scenarios to hone your skills in handling these types of estimation questions for your next product management interview.