Introduction
Aspiring product managers targeting FAANG companies must be ready to answer a variety of interview questions that test their problem-solving and analytical skills. FAANG interviews often include hypothetical situations that require a clear thought process and structure. A common example of such a question could be understanding the logistics and implications of transitioning to self-driving cars. In this article, we discuss how to approach the question: ‘If all people used self-driving cars for transportation, how many vehicles would be needed to service the US?’
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
Framework Selection
For estimating questions such as vehicle fleet size, the CIRCLES Method™ from ‘Decode and Conquer’ offers a structured approach to break down the problem. However, to adjust to our specific estimation question, we will modify the framework slightly to the following steps:
- Comprehend the question
- Identify the population base
- Calculate the average vehicle usage
- Review variables affecting demand
- Estimate vehicle lifetime and turnover rates
- Estimate the necessary fleet size
- Sensitize the answer with different scenarios
Step-by-Step Framework Application
Let’s follow these modified CIRCLES steps while providing hypothetical examples:
1. Comprehend the Question
Understanding the underlying assumptions and objectives of the question is crucial. Are we talking about personal vehicles only or all types of cars including taxis, ride-shares, and public transportation?
2. Identify the Population Base
Estimate the number of people using vehicles on a daily basis. For example, the U.S. has over 330 million people. Not all will use a car daily, so let’s hypothesize 75% of the population would need regular transportation.
3. Calculate the Average Vehicle Usage
Consider how the average person uses transportation. For working adults, you have a daily commute, errands, and the occasional long trip. Children and seniors have different patterns, but for simplicity, we could average two trips per person per day.
4. Review Variables Affecting Demand
Working from home, public transport options, and urban density could reduce the demand. Seasonality might increase it (e.g., holidays).
5. Estimate Vehicle Lifetime and Turnover
Self-driving cars could operate more hours per day than human-driven ones, reducing the number needed. Assuming each vehicle runs 20 hours a day and lasts 5 years, we can begin to calculate fleet size.
6. Estimate the Necessary Fleet Size
With data from steps 2-5, we can begin to put numbers together. For example, if 248 million people need transport and average two trips per day, that’s 496 million trips. If each self-driving car can provide 20 one-hour trips per day, we would need around 25 million cars to service that day’s transportation needs.
7. Sensitize the Answer with Different Scenarios
We need to factor in peak times, unexpected events, and breakdowns. This might increase the fleet size by a certain percentage to ensure reliability.
Facts Checking
Use census data, transportation studies, or trustworthy online sources to validate the assumptions made.
Communication Tips
Clearly articulate your thought process and be transparent about your assumptions. Show flexibility by discussing how scenarios could change your estimate.
Conclusion
In conclusion, tackling this autonomous vehicle fleet estimation requires a combination of frameworks, assumptions, and validation against data where possible. Aspiring product managers should practice structuring such complex problems into manageable parts and communicate their process clearly to succeed in FAANG interviews.