Introduction
Welcome to the blog focused on helping aspiring product managers ace their FAANG interviews by tackling common and challenging interview questions. Today, we’re dissecting how to estimate the number of user-reported incidents in a specific geographical area for a service like Waymo’s autonomous vehicles. This is a critical skill for product managers, as being able to assess and anticipate roadblocks in product adoption and user satisfaction is foundational to success in this role.
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
The question we’re addressing is: Estimate the number of incidents that could be reported by users of Waymo in the SF Bay area.
Selecting a Framework
For estimation questions, the Fermi estimation technique is a great framework. It allows us to break down big questions into smaller, manageable pieces that we can estimate from.
Step-by-Step Framework Application
1. Define “Incidents”
We must first define what an “incident” means in this context. It could range from minor software glitches to significant safety concerns.
2. Estimating the Number of Waymo Vehicles in SF Bay Area
Next, let’s find out how many Waymo vehicles are operating in the area. If an exact number isn’t available, we might estimate based on the company’s fleet size and market share.
3. Frequency of Use
Estimate how often these cars are on the road, taking into account peak hours, downtime for maintenance, etc.
4. Estimating Incident Rates
We need to estimate the rate of incidents per miles driven or hours on the road. This can be based on industry standards or previous data from Waymo if available.
5. Calculate Total Estimated Incidents
Multiply the number of vehicles by their frequency of use and the estimated incident rate to find the total number of expected incidents.
Hypothetical Example
Imagine Waymo operates 500 vehicles in the SF Bay area, each driving an average of 6 hours daily. If industry standards suggest 1 incident per 1,000 hours of autonomous driving, we’d expect roughly 3 incidents per day (500 cars * 6 hours / 1,000).
Fact Checks
Always remember to check your estimates with industry reports or expert interviews when possible to ensure they’re believable.
Communication Tips
Be clear and articulate each step of your thinking process. Practice using the framework to ensure fluidity and confidence.
Conclusion
In conclusion, using frameworks like the Fermi estimation simplifies daunting estimation issues. Remember, the intent in interviews is less about the exact number and more about demonstrating logical, structured thinking. Keep practicing with various scenarios to deepen your understanding and fluency with these frameworks. Now, go forth and conquer your product management interviews!