Introduction
Welcome to a pivotal section of our blog that addresses the rigorous interview process for aspiring product managers keen on cracking FAANG interviews. A standout skill set for candidates is the proficient use of structured frameworks to answer complex interview questions. In this blog post, we will dissect the question of estimating the number of passengers per year traveling from the US to the EU post-COVID, underlining how such numerical estimations can be approached in product management interviews.
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
Selecting the Framework
For approaching an estimation question such as this, the framework of choice is often the Fermi Estimation, named after physicist Enrico Fermi. It’s a technique used to arrive at quick, approximate answers to quantitative problems that seem intractable at first glance. Here’s how you can apply it step by step to our given question.
Step-by-Step Guide on Framework Application
Implementing the Fermi Estimation involves breaking down a large problem into smaller, solvable components and then multiplying those components together to get an estimate. Here’s an illustrative walkthrough:
- Recall the Pre-COVID Benchmark: Conduct a quick fact-check to remember, if possible, the pre-COVID numbers for transatlantic travel. For instance, in 2019, there were approximately 200 million passengers flying from North America to Europe.
- Estimate the Recovery Rate: Given the dynamic nature of the post-COVID world, guess a reasonable recovery rate for air travel. Let’s say, optimistically, this rate is 80% for August, a peak travel month.
- Assess the Monthly Distribution: Recognize that summer months see increased traffic. One might allocate 30% of annual traffic to the June-August period based on historical trends and vacation behaviors.
- Calculate Monthly Passengers: Multiply the annual benchmark by the recovery rate and then distribute it monthly. For instance, 200 million x 80% = 160 million annually. Of that, 30% in summer months equals 48 million over three months, or 16 million for August.
In our example, keeping the math straightforward yielded an estimate of 16 million passengers flying from the US to the EU in August post-COVID.
Accuracy Check
Confirming your thinking is consistent with reality, even with rough estimates, is crucial. Check out latest travel reports or industry data, even high-level ones, to ensure your numbers are not wildly off base. Remember, while precision is not expected, plausibility is.
Communication Tips
Effectively communicating your thought process is as important as the framework application. Articulate each step with clarity, and ensure you state your assumptions openly. Confidence in your methodology is key, but so is transparency in your approximations and the willingness to adjust if new information becomes available.
Conclusion
Utilizing structured frameworks such as the Fermi Estimation provides a robust methodology to tackle seemingly herculean questions in PM interviews. This blog post aimed to equip you with the tools to break down these challenges into manageable pieces and present reasoned, informed estimates. As you prepare for interviews, remember to practice these techniques extensively, integrating real-world data to enhance the credibility of your assessments. Your success in these interviews will hinge on your ability to navigate ambiguity with structured thought and confidence.