Estimating User Engagement: Acing the FAANG Product Manager Interview
Landing your dream job as a product manager at a top-tier company like FAANG requires acing the interview process. One category of questions you might encounter focuses on estimating user engagement or product usage. This article delves into a sample interview question: “Estimate the number of Uber rides.”
Effectively navigating such a question requires structured thinking and frameworks. The renowned book ‘Decode and Conquer: Answers to Product Management Interviews’ outlines strategies for tackling these challenges.
Applying the Fermi Estimation Framework
Choosing the Right Framework
For estimating questions, a modified version of the Fermi Estimation framework is often suitable. It helps break down complex problems into smaller, more manageable parts where educated guesses can be made.
Step-by-Step Guide
- Define the Problem: Clarify what is meant by “Uber rides.” Are we estimating daily, monthly, or yearly figures? Are we considering all regions or focused on a specific market?
- Gather Data: Find relevant data points such as the number of active Uber users, average number of rides per user, and key markets for Uber.
- Make Assumptions: In the absence of specific data, make logical assumptions. For example, assume the average urban user takes two Uber rides per week.
- Breakdown the Problem: Divide the total user base by region and multiply by the average number of rides to get a rough estimate. Factor in variables like urban vs. rural use, peak seasons, and economic factors.
- Sanity Check: Compare estimates to any known benchmarks or industry standards to ensure they are within a reasonable range.
Hypothetical Example
Let’s assume we’re estimating the number of Uber rides in the United States on a yearly basis. There are about 330 million people in the U.S. If we estimate that 20% of the population uses Uber (66 million users) and each user averages one ride per week, we’d have 66 million x 52 weeks = 3.43 billion rides per year. Adjust this for factors like children and non-urban regions, which might lower the estimate.
Fact Checks
When making estimates, use accessible data points, like population size or the percentage of smartphone ownership, as starting points. However, remember to reference reputable sources or industry reports for public data to validate your assumptions.
Communication Tips
Explain your process transparently, justify your assumptions with rational arguments, and be willing to adapt your methodology based on interviewer feedback. Practicing clear and confident communication is just as important as the logic behind your estimates.
Conclusion
To excel in estimating user engagement for a product or service like Uber, apply the Fermi framework wisely, check your facts, and communicate your thought process clearly. Practice this approach to enhance your ability to navigate such questions skillfully during FAANG product manager interviews.