Introduction
Welcome to a deep dive into one of the most intriguing questions facing product managers delving into the realm of futuristic technology. This blog post is tailormade for those aspiring to conquer FAANG interviews and will power through an analytical approach to predicting market trends for emerging technologies—specifically AR-enabled glasses. The discussion here is centred on “How many AR glasses will ship in 2031 and what factors to consider in this estimation?” Understanding the structured frameworks for delivering an impactful answer is crucial in showcasing your strategic thinking and analytical prowess during product management interviews.
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
Choosing a Framework: The CIRCLES Method™
For our predictive estimation task, we will employ the CIRCLES Method™, a comprehensive framework ideal for tackling market-sizing and estimation questions. Let’s break it down:
Comprehend the Question
First, ensure you understand the question’s scope: we’re interested in the number of AR glasses that will ship in 2031—a clear case of market sizing.
Identify the Customer
Who will be using the AR glasses? Segment your customers into consumers, businesses, and other possible categories like education or healthcare industries.
Calculate the Market Size
Estimate the size of each customer segment. For consumers, you might look at the global population adoption curve of new technologies. Businesses may be gauged based on industry-specific needs and historical tech adoption rates.
List the Needs and Use Cases
Determine what needs AR glasses meet and brainstorm a list of popular use cases that may drive their adoption across different customer segments.
Lay Out the Segmentation
Further break down the market into finer segments such as age groups, professions, industries, and geographic locations, which could influence the adoption rates of AR glasses.
Evaluate the Adoption Rates
Consider factors like technology maturity, price point, consumer awareness, and infrastructure requirements which might affect how quickly different market segments adopt AR glasses.
Scope Out the Competition and Substitute Products
Understand what alternative solutions exist and how they might influence the market share of AR glasses.
Size the Revenue or Shipments
Finally, bring all your estimations together to calculate the number of AR glasses that will likely ship in 2031.
Hypothetical Example Application
Imagine a scenario where you’re assessing the market for AR glasses in the consumer segment. You might consider a global population of 8 billion in 2031, with 25% belonging to economically affluent regions where technology adoption is typically higher. Of this segment, perhaps 10% are tech enthusiasts likely to adopt AR glasses within the first year of a mature product’s release. Thus, for consumers alone, you might estimate shipments to be in the tens of millions.
Fact Checks and Ballparking
While specific data points might not be available, familiarize yourself with current rates of adoption for similar technologies, pricing trends, and extrapolate reasonably. It’s alright to make educated guesses, as long as they’re grounded in logic and available data.
Effective Communication Tips
Maintain clarity and structure in your response. Start with your understanding of the question, follow through with a step-by-step application of the framework, and conclude with a concise summary of your estimation process. Articulate any assumptions you make and the rationale behind them.
Conclusion
Coming full circle, we’ve traversed the CIRCLES Method™, which elucidates a strategic approach to estimating future shipments of AR glasses. Remember, the key to mastering this framework lies in practice. With every mock answer you craft, your intuition for structuring responses and ball parking numbers will sharpen, ultimately positioning you for success in your next product management interview.