Introduction
Welcome to this blog dedicated to all aspiring product managers aiming to make their mark in FAANG companies. One of the formidable challenges candidates face during interviews is how to process and tackle product-related questions. Using structured frameworks not only adds clarity but also showcases one’s ability to think analytically. Today, let’s dissect a question you might encounter: “How many planes are flying over the US right now?” This exercise is about approaching a complex problem methodically, even when exact data points are not readily available.
Detailed Guide on Framework Application
Selecting the Framework
For estimating questions like the one posed, the framework that fits well is the Fermi Problem Framework. It’s named after physicist Enrico Fermi, known for his ability to make good approximate calculations with little or no actual data. The Fermi estimation requires breaking down a large and vague question into manageable chunks to estimate an answer.
Applying the Fermi Problem Framework
- Identifying The Components: Start by identifying the variables that influence the number of planes in the air. This might include peak travel times, number of airports, flight schedules, and the types of flights (commercial, cargo, private, etc.).
- Establishing Baselines: Use general knowledge and logical assumptions to establish baseline figures for each component. For instance, one could assume there are more flights during morning and evening peak hours and on weekends.
- Gathering Factual Anchors: Where possible, use real-world data points, like the number of major airports or average daily flights from industry reports.
- Performing Calculations: Use the assumptions and factual anchors to estimate the number of planes. For instance, if there are 5,000 scheduled flights during a peak time and an average flight duration of 3 hours, then at any given time, roughly 1/3 of those could be in the air.
Hypothetical Example
Let’s say there are 10,000 commercial flights every day. If flights are evenly distributed over 24 hours, and an average flight duration is 3 hours, one might estimate that 1,250 commercial airplanes (10,000/8) are over the US at any given time. Considering cargo and private flights, this number could be adjusted to add an additional percentage, reaching a rough estimate. Remember, the intent is not to be exact but reasonable.
Factoring in Uncertainties
Candidates must acknowledge uncertainties and indicate how they could refine their estimate with additional data, showing critical thinking and an understanding of the complexities involved.
Communication Tips
Speak clearly, explain your assumptions, why you chose them, and how they lead to your final estimates. It’s also crucial to show flexibility to revise estimates with new information or feedback.
Conclusion
The key takeaway from applying the Fermi Problem Framework to estimate the number of planes flying over the US is to approach the problem with a structured mindset, breaking it down into more digestible parts. Remember, demonstrating this structured thought process is often more important than the accuracy of the final answer. Practice this and similar questions using the framework to prepare for your FAANG product management interviews.